Light Rail Blues - Query From A Reader

Recently, one of my loyal readers, Johnny Wraith, in the comments section, asked me a couple of questions that I thought were particularly pertinent to the subject that my series, Light Rail Blues, addresses. Additionally, he made the request that I write a particular type of story. Rather than just post my answers in the comments section of this blog, I decided to make his questions, and my answers, more visible to the general readership.

On Sunday, October 21, 2007, at 7:11 AM, Johnny asked,

"How will the light rail affect the taxi business?" and "If you could earn more by being a light rail operator, would you rather be a light rail operator?" This was his story request: "Please tell us a story about ladies changing their clothes in the back of your cab." Well, at least Johnny knows what he wants!

Here are my responses:

Johnny, you have a asked a couple of very good questions. Unfortunately, right now, I'd have to say that the answer to both is, "I don't know."

As to the first question, there are too many ridership variables to easily quantify the solution.

Here's one example: how many people, who are currently using taxis to get around, will use the light rail instead? Any positive number would tend to decrease taxi revenues.

Here's another: how many people, who are currently using their cars for an entire trip, will take a cab to a light rail stop, use the train to their destination (or to a system system exit point, and use a taxi for the balance of their trip)? A positive number here would tend to increase taxi revenue.

Taken all together, will the net effect of all the possible variables result in increased taxi revenues? Well, we're back to square one: I don't know. I think you'd agreed a simple answer to this question will require significant study and calculation.

My gut feeling, based on how low I predict ridership will be from the start (and for at least a few years) is that the net effect on the cab economy will be negligible overall. This is especially true for me, as especially to me, as I work the whole Valley; the Light Rail corridor is a small segment of my market. However, I do think that those drivers who specialize in serving areas adjacent to the light rail corridor may have to make adjustments.

Would I want to be light rail operator, instead of a cab driver, presuming I could make more money? Hell, I might do it for less money, if the benefits package is favorable. Right now I work about twelve hours a day, six days a week, and any benefits I get are paid for directly out of my pocket. This is because I am an independent contractor, and not an employee. As a light rail operator, I presume I would work a standard forty-hour week, as an employee, with benefits. Yes, I know that the cost of benefits are paid by employees, in the form of a lower gross salary or wage, but after all is said and done, net disposable income is what really counts, as it is what buys a lifestyle.

So, I think johnny's question really becomes, if you could have a better lifestyle as the result of becoming light rail operator, would you make the change? Probably. At least, as a light rail operator, I'd probably work quite a few less hours. And my chances of becoming the victim of an act of senseless, random violence or robbery would probably be substantially smaller. That's got to count for something, wouldn't you say?

As for me writing a story about ladies changing their clothes in the back of my cab? Well, I'm willing to produce such a story, but right now it will have to be fiction. Such an event hasn't taken place in my reality. Yet. But who knows? Maybe with time... be patient. And check back with me on a regular basis. I can't predict when ladies will want to change their clothes in the back of my cab. Or what I will do if it happens!

Thanks for your questions and request, Johnny. I'm glad to see that someone is paying attention.

Sincerely,

The Cab Guy